Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 3.286253 3.955781 4.705134 5.602742 6.645281 7.814457 9.221192
2025-03-30 2.215737 3.028712 4.038609 5.372225 7.072264 9.150927 11.866722
2025-04-06 1.649394 2.515599 3.690973 5.373027 7.683538 10.706420 14.913041
2025-04-13 1.261881 2.124115 3.389393 5.330686 8.171504 12.103006 17.863059
2025-04-20 1.071079 1.962348 3.359898 5.631753 9.132259 14.199886 21.932731
2025-04-27 0.904206 1.794073 3.278077 5.821220 9.925571 16.109262 25.887292
2025-05-04 0.790227 1.686284 3.265998 6.103072 10.871354 18.307555 30.430137
2025-05-11 0.652731 1.502279 3.087934 6.073952 11.299934 19.732222 33.894498
2025-05-18 0.518847 1.291920 2.821994 5.845048 11.354251 20.547620 36.445210
2025-05-25 0.407238 1.098710 2.550467 5.558530 11.261578 21.093084 38.576198
2025-06-01 0.342368 0.992332 2.429874 5.534338 11.623633 22.415527 42.064606
2025-06-08 0.293562 0.911309 2.346595 5.568358 12.089330 23.942882 45.992936
2025-06-15 0.247574 0.826778 2.244077 5.555785 12.478596 25.391647 49.939608
2025-06-22 0.195597 0.710326 2.045985 5.310108 12.381007 25.948237 52.355342
2025-06-29 0.165591 0.647449 1.963243 5.304915 12.765913 27.425703 56.526755
2025-07-06 0.138835 0.585595 1.870261 5.260924 13.061392 28.750145 60.498561
2025-07-13 0.129398 0.577906 1.918264 5.557793 14.116078 31.623188 67.546859
2025-07-20 0.116880 0.555452 1.921546 5.744815 14.945520 34.104859 73.994078
2025-07-27 0.108563 0.545824 1.959406 6.023358 16.004933 37.117592 81.634998
2025-08-03 0.092509 0.500265 1.882649 5.994530 16.356214 38.704738 86.577630
2025-08-10 0.074303 0.437817 1.740148 5.768219 16.219000 39.261649 89.503756
2025-08-17 0.058279 0.376736 1.586557 5.484977 15.910210 39.424093 91.632717
2025-08-24 0.049657 0.346291 1.527753 5.461061 16.233853 40.967599 96.667340